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Project Finance Model - Power Generation (Gas)

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Project Finance Model - Power Generation (Gas)

  • Designed for developers, financiers and investors analysing gas-fired power generation projects.
  • Comprehensive project-finance model covering construction, operations, revenues, costs and multiple financing layers.
  • Built-in macro-driven debt sizing (leverage-ratio or DSCR-based) with sculpted senior debt, refinancing and mezzanine tranches.
  • Evaluates levered and unlevered returns under different capacity-charge, O&M fixed and variable charges and gas-price scenarios.

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Key Features
  • Return and cash-flow analysis – Calculates levered and unlevered IRRs, MOIC and other equity and project KPIs. Provides cash-flow waterfalls and CFADS profiles.
  • Advanced debt sizing – Uses macros to size debt based on target leverage ratios or DSCR; supports senior debt with sculpting, refinancing and mezzanine bullet repayment (with sinking-fund modelling).
  • Flexible tariff and cost modelling – Handles capacity-charge and variable O&M tariffs (both hard-coded and formula-based) with escalators, heat-rate curves and start-up costs.
  • Detailed CAPEX and construction schedule – Separates direct, indirect, pre-financial-close and owner costs with contingencies and success fees. A configurable S‑curve allocates capex across development and construction periods.
  • Scenario and sensitivity analysis – Compare multiple cases side-by-side by changing dates, plant capacities, gas prices, heat rates and operating assumptions. Built-in sensitivity tables analyse IRRs under different capacity-charge and O&M charge assumptions.
  • Tax and depreciation – Includes MACRS depreciation schedules (switchable between monthly, quarterly or semi-annual periods) and property/federal tax inputs.
  • Dashboard and charts – A dashboard tab summarises key metrics, while charts visualise CFADS, DSRA balances and principal repayments.
  • Adjustable periodicity – Model can be set to monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or annual periodicity via macros.
Inputs and Outputs

Inputs:

  • Capacity & availability assumptions
  • Fuel (gas price) and heat-rate curves
  • Capacity charge & O&M tariff settings (incl. escalators)
  • CAPEX breakdown and construction schedule (incl. S-Curve)
  • Financing structure: leverage, tenor, DSCR target, refinancing & mezzanine options
  • Tax, depreciation and working-capital assumptions

Outputs:

  • Project & equity IRR, MOIC and payback metrics
  • CFADS and full cash-flow waterfall
  • Senior & mezzanine debt schedules, DSRA and refinancing impacts
  • Financial statements & capex / depreciation schedules
  • Scenario & sensitivity analysis for tariffs, fuel price and cost assumptions

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Other Notes
  • The model comes as a macro-enabled Excel file. Instructions and colour-coding guidelines are provided on the Instructions tab for quick orientation.
  • Built using industry-standard best practices with transparent formulas and separate input/output sections.
  • Macros are only used for debt sizing and periodicity switches; the rest of the workbook is formula-based.
  • Suitable for monthly, quarterly or semi-annual modelling—use the macro settings to change the periodicity before entering assumptions.
  • Includes error checks and alerts to help ensure inputs are reasonable and the model balances.
  • Terms of Use
  • No guarantees or professional advice – The model does not constitute financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult qualified professionals before relying on its outputs.
  • Assumptions – Results depend on user-supplied assumptions, estimates and projections. The author does not guarantee that these assumptions will be realised or that the outputs will reflect future outcomes.
  • No liability – The author makes no representations or warranties regarding the completeness or accuracy of the model and accepts no liability for errors, omissions or losses arising from its use.
  • User responsibility – You are responsible for verifying the model’s calculations and ensuring it is appropriate for your specific circumstances. Improper use or unauthorised modifications are at your own risk.
  • No guarantee of outcomes – The model does not guarantee financing approvals, investment returns or any specific outcome.
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